the nature of risk

Risk in Review

We started the series (both in my imagination and in publication) with a story about a ballot initiative outside America. As I reflect on it, it's helped me formalize my guess: sacred values are just secular values we can't amortize. The death of a

the nature of risk

Index Funds, Correlated Risk, and Tech Stocks

I have a strange feeling that off-index industry stocks represent an interesting view into the market. In particular, non-FANG tech stocks. Microsoft is a huge tech company, has been around basically forever (for tech), and its stock has been doing well – which I think

the nature of risk

The Costs of Global Warming

Earlier, I discussed my desire for a more thorough accounting of the impacts of climate change. It seems a recent government report has provided these estimates, at least for the US. And good news – it's only a 10% reduction in GDP by 2100! I

the nature of risk

Immigrants: Not Less Crime, But Less Risk

Immigrants to America are less likely than citizens to commit crimes. But they are still victims of crimes, statistically displacing the victimhood of native-born Americans. This assumes victims-per-crime remains relatively constant, which seems like an extremely reasonable assumption (you've got to think it's close

the nature of risk

Specific Reasons and Illusory Cycles

I recently heard on a Planet Money podcast episode, during a discussion of possible impending recessions, that the bull run could last indefinitely unless something stops it. This was a curious thing to hear, because a lot of the phraseology around markets implies they

the nature of risk

Nuclear Power in Taiwan

I had a delightful experience the other day, and I thought I would share it with you. I had made up my mind about an issue, was pretty sure the people on the opposite side were not particularly well informed, the whole nine yards.