I've noticed a strange pattern of bad reasoning. People see a trend, extend it indefinitely into the future, and then somehow confuse that with having arrived at their end point already.

"I'm the first person to say that there are no new ideas" – a hilarious joke (and meant as such by whoever the genius is who penned it) that I've heard several people not understand is a joke. It's hard to pinpoint why – it's meant to poke fun at an old piece of... "wisdom"? But it also points out an important mechanic: the first person who said it, obviously, was wrong. "There are no new ideas" is staggeringly unlikely to be the final idea, and even if it was, it would be new anyway, that first time. But despite the first person who said it definitely being wrong, it will be repeated by people assuming it's somehow right. I can't quite account for this – they seem to assume I'd be persuaded by the evidence of the world, but things can't simultaneously be changing so much many people can't keep up AND be utterly repetitive. Anyone can look at the world and find loads of ideas that are shockingly new.  

I've mentioned before my skepticism about cryonics. Unmentioned in that piece was the concern that we've already failed at Frankensteining people. They imagine a world where medical technology is good enough to figure out how to do it, then... well, they cut your head off and do a really specific procedure they've got no evidence works. Obviously. They can't wait for the future to tell them how to do this. They've got to process these people as they're dying. But just assuming this will be possible doesn't mean you know how to do it right this exact instant. In the meantime, people are getting frozen in a process likely to be as safe as dumping them on The South Pole.

Aliens probably exist elsewhere in the universe. The universe is unimaginably massive, after all. It's yet to be seen whether humanity will ever bump into them, or if they'll be interesting or capable of thought. But so many people look at the result of the Drake Equation and start rushing to the conclusion it could be figured out in their lifetimes. What a shock that would be – if interaction with intelligent aliens is probable, I should hope it's either near-constant or give up all hope. The alternative, that it is likely, but not too likely, but will happen in my lifetime anyway, might have sad implications about the future of humanity. As though we don't need a long future to talk to aliens, but it's also not a definite thing... it seems to imply humanity doesn't have a long future. That would be a tremendous bummer. I'd like humans to be thinking and joking for eons – leave those more capable hands the work of making a good interplanetary first impression, perhaps. There's no rush.

Maybe this is what technology does to us, makes us confuse the present and future, to confuse possibility with actuality. Or maybe people are just enthusiastic. I don't blame them. But I think it's important to develop the type of patience this requires, and thankfulness for what we already do have. Being fixated on your future means you might not appreciate your present as much as it deserves.